CHINA'S RISE RATTLES FOREIGN NERVES

Quite. China's rise – it prefers the term “development” – promises to be perhaps the greatest event of our time. A prosperous China would immeasurably improve the lives of more than a billion people.

But the history of great nations rising is not a happy one. China's experience with Japan, another neighbour with global pretensions, showed that all too clearly. China's recent history suggests it is more interested in maintaining the borders established during the 1644-1911 Qing dynasty than in expanding further. But Beijing's neighbours are, not unreasonably, nervous about the military clout of an ambitious one-party state.

China has, after all, threatened to go to war if Taiwan declares independence. In the second half of the 20th century its troops clashed with those of India, the Soviet Union and Vietnam. The secrecy surrounding Beijing's military spending provokes concern. The situation is made more delicate by several unresolved territorial disputes over islands and maritime boundaries. A fragile peace is kept by the US. But if Tokyo doubted for one second Washington's resolve to come to its defence, it would go nuclear, triggering a regional arms race.

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