Good morning. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development wants the world’s central banks to stop raising interest rates, on the grounds that further tightening risks a global recession, during which the world’s poorest would suffer most. We agree about who recessions hit hardest, but think global inflation would also be cruel to the vulnerable. Whoever’s right, it is worth remembering that the increases and declines in rich-world stock portfolios is one of the least important consequences of central banks’ terrible dilemma.

Still, that’s what we’re paid to write about. Email us: [email protected] and [email protected].

Financial crises, pseudo-crises and seeing the future  

Does the fact that everyone is on the lookout for a financial crisis make a financial crisis more likely, or less so?