Russian oil production is forecast to fall by 1.9mn barrels a day by February once an EU embargo on Moscow’s exports of crude and refined petroleum products comes into full force, according to the International Energy Agency.
Although the drop compared with pre-war production levels is smaller than the 3mn b/d losses the IEA predicted in March, the forecast points to the impact the EU ban could have even if significant volumes are re-routed to other markets.
Russia produced almost 11mn b/d of crude and products in August, only marginally down on its output before it invaded Ukraine in February, the Paris-based IEA said. It expects that to fall to 10.2mn b/d in December and to 9.5mn b/d by February 2023.
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