Forty years ago today, former Salomon Brothers economist Henry Kaufman helped start one of history’s great bull markets. Known then as “Dr Doom” for his bearish views, he roused investors by changing his stance and forecasting a fall in interest rates after a punishing Federal Reserve campaign to tame inflation.
Now 94, Kaufman remains focused on financial affairs and in a recent interview was sufficiently spry to hold forth at length on his book of last year, The Day the Markets Roared, which recounts his fateful rate call on August 17 1982. Asked how he was doing, he answered cheekily: “So far, so good.”
His views on US monetary policy are less sanguine. He fears that today’s Fed under Jay Powell is failing to combat inflation with the resolve displayed by Paul Volcker, who aggressively hiked interest rates while leading the central bank in the 1970s and 1980s.