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How to invest in emerging markets

Historically cheap pricing is not enough given the macro headwinds
The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy

After eye-popping price drops in the first half of the year and a bit of a bounce in recent weeks, more analysts are recommending higher across-the-board exposure to emerging market assets.

After all, the valuation metrics for these markets are at historically cheap levels if you look at indices, both on a standalone basis and relative to developed markets. The bulls argue that, with most disruptive forces now in the rear-view mirror, a period of lower volatility and higher returns is immediately ahead of us.

Cheap historical pricing is, in my view, a necessary but not sufficient condition for gainful emerging markets investing, particularly for those with little appetite for volatility.

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