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Putin should beware the cost of war with Ukraine

Markets’ reaction to the threat of an invasion suggests it may prove too much for Russia’s economy to bear

The writer is professor of economics at Sciences Po, Paris 

It was Russia’s interior minister Vyacheslav von Plehve who, a century ago, infamously said: “What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.” In 1904, in the midst of growing public dissatisfaction with the Czarist government, he viewed the forthcoming Russo-Japanese conflict as a welcome distraction from domestic unrest.

His doctrine spectacularly backfired, however. The Russian Empire did go to war with Japan, but suffered a catastrophic defeat; the resulting 1905 revolution forced the tsar to establish the first Russian constitution and parliament, the Duma. Von Plehve himself did not live to see this — he was killed in 1904 by the very same revolutionaries his war was intended to suppress.

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