The writer is director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
It is hard to miss the optimism and euphoria in Tel Aviv, Washington and not a few western capitals. The crushing of Iran’s power will deliver stability and peace in the Middle East, many like to believe. US envoy Steve Witkoff has announced that several, still unnamed, countries will normalise relations with Israel shortly, though these may not be Arab states. Some Israeli strategists have already proposed an “Abraham Shield Plan”, which would enshrine Israeli dominance and secure political and economic benefits without presenting any concessions related to Palestinian statehood. Above all, Israel shows no desire for a negotiated end to the Gaza war.
Contrast that with the stupor and sense of dread pervading the Gulf region, which just experienced its fifth major conflagration in five decades. After the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the 1990-91 Gulf war, the 2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq and its bloody aftermath and years of damaging intra-Gulf disputes, there was hope that an agenda of global integration and regional prosperity would shield the region from turmoil. Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE in May was carefully designed to get US buy-in for this vision.