The writer is professor of economics at Harvard University and author of ‘Our Dollar, Your Problem’
US fiscal policy is running off the rails, and there seems to be little political will in either party to fix it until a major crisis occurs.
The 2024 budget deficit was a mind-blowing 6.4 per cent of GDP; credible forecasts suggest that the deficit will exceed 7 per cent of GDP for the rest of President Donald Trump’s term. And that is assuming there is no black swan event that once again causes growth to crater and debt to balloon. With US debt already exceeding 120 per cent of GDP, it seems a budget crisis of some sort is more likely than not over the next five years.
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