Poles went to bed on Sunday thinking a centre-right candidate had won their presidential election. They woke to find a nationalist populist had squeaked home instead. Karol Nawrocki’s 51-49 per cent victory was wafer-thin, but a bitter reversal. It comes only 18 months after the return of the centrist Donald Tusk as prime minister seemed to open a path to restore democracy and rule of law in Poland after eight years of state capture by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party — which nominated Nawrocki. After right-wing losses in Canada, Australia and Romania, the result also marks a win in the heart of Europe for a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump’s Maga movement.
Tusk’s coalition has so far been stymied by a confrontational, PiS-backed president, Andrzej Duda, who has blocked or delayed its reform efforts by using his powers to veto legislation or refer it to Poland’s constitutional court (packed with PiS appointees). The premier had staked his near-term political future on hopes that a supportive president — in the shape of Rafał Trzaskowski from his Civic Platform party — would soon unshackle him. Instead Nawrocki, a one-time football hooligan who has never held elected office, threatens to be even more hostile.
The Tusk camp must bear some blame. The prime minister’s instinct was understandably to move fast to restore checks and balances and judicial independence, not least to release EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns. But his government immediately butted up against Duda, occasionally prompting it to resort to methods of borderline legality.