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US stock rally faces some stiff tests

Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ budget bill could make or break the market trend

The startling bounceback in US stocks since April’s tariff chaos has stalled. Now, Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” budget bill is the event that could make or break it.

US retail investors are, it seems, all in. They were among the first to buy the dip in US stocks straight after the “liberation day” tariffs shock, and they never looked back. The rewards heading their way have been substantial, with a 22 per cent jump from April’s lowest point in the main US index, the S&P 500.

That index is still only just positive on the year, trailing far behind much of the rest of the world, and momentum has run out over the past couple of weeks. But still, mom-and-pop investors, and other early dip buyers, we salute you. This has been a very impressive trade.

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