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Tariffs spark US junk bond sell-off as recession risk mounts

Corporate credit is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ for a faltering economy, analysts warn

Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff blitz has sparked the biggest sell-off in the US junk bond market since 2020, signalling growing angst among investors that an economic slowdown will hit corporate America.

The premium investors demand to hold speculative-rated corporate debt compared to that offered by US government bonds — a proxy for default risk — has shot up by 1 percentage point to 4.45 percentage points since Wednesday, ICE BofA data shows. That is the biggest rise since coronavirus triggered widespread lockdowns in 2020.

The sell-off in corporate bonds since Wednesday, when Trump took US tariffs to their highest level in over a century, highlights investors’ worries that the move will hit economic output and raise unemployment, leaving weaker companies struggling to repay their debts, analysts said.

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