The writer is director of research and co-founder at Energy Aspects
It is now a belief among many in energy markets that president-elect Donald Trump will succeed in driving oil prices down, possibly even further than during Joe Biden’s term.
Brent crude has been languishing in the $70s for the past few months. That is despite members of the Opec+ group agreeing at their last meeting to slow a planned increase in production, removing much of 2025’s expected surplus. It is also despite Trump’s likely hawkish stance on Iran, which will probably lead to a drop in the availability of oil from the country. Although under sanctions, Iranian crude and condensate exports reached as high as 1.8mn barrels a day under Biden compared with 0.4 mb/d under Trump, according to our data.