英國大選

The pollsters’ conundrum: how big or small a victory could Labour win?
英國民調機構遇到難題:工黨的勝選優勢有多大?

Significant potential swings, tactical voting and undecided voters may all play havoc with forecasting models
雖然所有人都認爲斯塔默領導的工黨有望在7月4日的大選中獲勝,但各方對於勝選的領先幅度有多大存在巨大分歧。
In the 55 polls released since start of campaign, Labour’s lead over the Tories has varied from 12 percentage points at its lowest to 27 at its highest

This UK general election presents an unusual headache for pollsters: while everyone agrees Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is on course for victory on July 4, there is huge disagreement about how big that win could be.

這次英國大選給民調機構帶來了一個不同尋常的頭疼問題:雖然所有人都認爲基爾•斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)領導的工黨(Labour Party)有望在7月4日的大選中獲勝,但各方對於勝選的領先幅度有多大存在巨大分歧。

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