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Banks hope for M&A revival despite the geopolitics

Lower interest rates and an economic soft landing may boost deal activity after difficult 2023

Predicting whether dealmaking makes a comeback this year may be a fool’s errand given the unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty we live in and will continue to experience for the foreseeable future. 

Yet, after a year when mergers and acquisitions activity sank below $3tn for the first time in a decade, there are some encouraging signs that 2024 will witness a pick-up in deals. Last year the value of total transactions struck globally fell 17 per cent to about $2.9tn, according to London Stock Exchange Group data.

Frank Aquila, corporate lawyer at Sullivan & Cromwell, said conditions in 2024 were likely to be better after a year marked by two major armed conflicts, central bankers battling inflation with rapid interest rate rises and uncertainty over whether the US would default on its debt.

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