尊敬的用戶您好，這是來自FT中文網的溫馨提示：如您對更多FT中文網的內容感興趣，請在蘋果應用商店或谷歌應用市場搜尋「FT中文網」，下載FT中文網的官方應用。
The writer is a professor of law at Seoul National University
本文作者是首爾大學法學教授
South Korea has beaten its own record once again. The country has registered a new low in its already faltering birth rate. The rate for 2023 was just 0.72. This is an unprecedented number in the global community (the average for OECD countries was 1.58 in 2021).
南韓再次打破了自己的記錄。南韓本已岌岌可危的出生率再創新低。2023年的出生率僅爲0.72。這在全球社會中都是史無前例的（2021年經合組織國家的平均出生率爲1.58）。
At the current pace, the South Korean population will be halved by 2100 to just 24mn. In 2022, 249,000 babies were born. For the country’s labour market to function, South Korea needs 500,000 babies a year at a minimum. It is operating at half that figure.
按照目前的速度，到2100年，南韓人口將減少一半，僅爲2400萬。2022年，南韓出生了24.9萬名嬰兒。南韓的勞動力市場要正常運轉，每年至少需要50萬名嬰兒。而南韓目前只有這個數字的一半。
And don’t forget that this is the scorecard after the injection of around $247bn by the government since 2006. A host of childcare vouchers and direct grants have not had the desired impact.
別忘了，這是自2006年以來政府注資約2470億美元后的成績單。大量的育兒券和直接補助並未產生預期效果。
It was as long ago as 2005 that the birth rate of 1.2 first startled South Korea, causing the government to realise the extent of the problem and begin working on it. The Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy was established. It is still at the helm of national policy. But despite these efforts, South Korea has reached a point where the problem is becoming more of a national emergency.
早在2005年，1.2的出生率首次令南韓震驚，促使政府意識到問題的嚴重性，並開始著手解決。老齡化社會和人口政策總統委員會應運而生。目前，該委員會仍是國家政策的掌舵者。但是，儘管做出了這些努力，南韓的老齡化問題已經到了國家緊急狀態的地步。
The short-sighted, small-family campaigns of the 1970s and 80s played a role in the current predicament — “One child per family is still too many for Korea” was the slogan then. But experts agree that there are two outstanding culprits today: the exorbitant cost of education and housing. Fearful of these twin expenses, young couples have not dared to have and raise children.
20世紀70年代和80年代短視的小家庭運動是造成當前困境的原因之一，當時的口號是「對於南韓來說，每個家庭一個孩子還是太多了」。但專家們一致認爲，如今有兩個突出的罪魁禍首：高昂的教育和住房費用。由於擔心這兩方面的開支，年輕夫婦不敢生育和撫養孩子。
The government may be able to find a way to deal with the housing issue. Agencies can control housing prices through taxation and construction permits, and offer preferential packages to families with young children through special laws and regulation. It is difficult and costly, of course, but doable.
政府或許可以找到解決住房問題的辦法。有關機構可以透過稅收和建築許可來控制房價，並透過專門的法律和法規爲有年幼子女的家庭提供優惠套餐。當然，這很困難，成本也很高，但還是可行的。
When it comes to schooling, however, things are different. A huge number of South Korean children attend private teaching institutions, regardless of whether they also go to public schools. In 2022, South Korea registered its highest tuition expenditure for private education yet, spending almost $20bn. This number does not even show the full picture; there are myriad associated costs, such as those of books, materials, counselling fees and food.
但在學校教育方面，情況就不同了。大量南韓兒童就讀於私立教學機構，無論他們是否也在公立學校上學。2022年，南韓的私立教育學費支出達到了迄今爲止的最高水準，接近200億美元。這個數字甚至還不能反映全貌；還有無數的相關費用，如書本費、材料費、輔導費和伙食費。
It is therefore not uncommon for families in Seoul to spend a significant portion of their monthly household income on private education. According to a December 2023 report released by the Federation of Korean Industries, 26 per cent of the drastic drop in birth rates between 2015 and 2022 was attributed to the prohibitive cost of private education for potential parents.
因此，在首爾，將家庭收入的很大一部分用於課外教育是司空見慣的事情。根據南韓經貿團體全國經濟人聯合會(Federation of Korean Industries)於2023年12月發佈的一份報告，2015年至2022年期間出生率的急劇下降中，有26%歸因於潛在父母的私人教育成本過高。
This problem is difficult to fix because it is so intertwined with the country’s culture. South Korean society is deeply competitive. This will take time to change. In the meantime, artificial intelligence and digitalisation may have a role to play in reducing the cost of private education.
這個問題很難解決，因爲它與這個國家的文化交織在一起。南韓社會競爭激烈。這需要時間來改變。與此同時，人工智慧和數位化可能在降低私立教育成本方面發揮作用。
AI-enabled education programmes could replace conventional, late-night in-person cramming at teaching institutions. Digitalisation could help make private education more accessible for poorer families. Of course, both moves have their own perils — the possibility that they might engender further competition between children is an important concern. But with planning, these side-effects can be curbed.
基於人工智慧的教育項目可以取代教學機構傳統的深夜面對面填鴨式教學。數位化可以幫助貧困家庭更容易接受私立教育。當然，這兩種舉措都有其自身的風險——它們可能會引發孩子之間進一步的競爭，這是一個重要的問題。但透過規劃，這些副作用是可以控制的。
Many countries are witnessing a decline in birth rates. Earlier this month, France, alarmed by the lowest birth rate in almost three decades in 2023 — at 1.68 compared with South Korea’s 0.72 — announced a major reform to its parental leave system. But while South Korea may not be unique in facing this problem, or in attempting to tackle its causes, it stands alone in just how bad things have become.
許多國家的出生率正在下降。本月早些時候，法國對2023年近30年來最低的出生率(1.68，而南韓爲0.72)感到震驚，宣佈對其育兒假制度進行重大改革。但是，雖然南韓可能不是唯一一個面臨這個問題或試圖解決其根源的國家，但它在問題的嚴重程度上是獨一無二的。