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Vice-president Kamala Harris has drawn level with former president Donald Trump in the polls barely a week into her presidential campaign, according to an FT analysis of the latest data.
根據英國《金融時報》對最新數據的分析，美國副總統卡瑪拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)在開始總統競選不到一週的時間裏，在民調中就追平了前總統唐納•川普(Donald Trump)。
President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, after a disastrous performance in his debate against Trump weeks earlier, and immediately endorsed Harris. Since then, she has all but wiped out her party’s national polling deficit against her rival, according to a Financial Times average of polls.
喬•拜登(Joe Biden)總統在幾周前與川普的辯論中表現糟糕，於7月21日退出競選，並立即表示支援哈里斯。根據英國《金融時報》對民調結果的平均統計，自那以來，她幾乎抹平了民主黨在全國民調中相對於競爭對手的劣勢。
While Biden trailed Trump by 3 percentage points on the day he dropped out of the presidential race, Harris and the former president are now neck and neck nationally.
雖然拜登在退出總統競選當天落後川普3個百分點，但哈里斯和這位前總統目前在全國的支援率不分上下。
Ultimately, US elections are decided by the Electoral College, and therefore in a small subset of winner-take-all “battleground” states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
美國大選最終由選舉人團決定，因此也可以說是由一小部分贏者通喫的「戰場」州決定的，包括亞利桑那州、喬治亞州、密西根州、內華達州、賓州和威斯康辛州。
In all six key battlegrounds, Harris’s recent polling represents a 1- to 3-point improvement over Biden’s before he dropped out a little over a week ago. Biden was trailing by two or more points in all six states at the time he dropped out, while Harris is now tied 50-50 with Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and within a point of a tie in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. All are now statistical dead heats.
在所有六個關鍵戰場上，哈里斯最近的民調都比拜登一週多前退出競選前高出1到3個百分點。拜登退出競選時，在這六個州都落後兩個百分點或更多，而哈里斯現在在密西根州和威斯康辛州與川普50比50，在內華達州、賓州和亞利桑那州與川普的差距在一個百分點以內。從統計數據來看，所有州都處於僵持狀態。
Harris has also made gains across nearly every demographic group since Biden’s withdrawal, according to like-for-like comparisons of surveys from numerous pollsters. In particular, her support has increased among Black, Latino, young and female voters, and independents. It has declined marginally with only one group — voters over the age of 50.
根據衆多民調機構的同類比較，自拜登退選以來，哈里斯在幾乎所有人口羣體中都取得了進展。特別是，她在黑人、拉丁裔、年輕選民和女性選民以及無黨派人士中的支援率有所上升。只有一個羣體——50歲以上的選民——的支援率略有下降。
Predictive traders closely tracking the race have noted these shifts. Harris has eclipsed Biden’s pre-debate price on two prediction markets, Polymarket and PredictIt, though they still see her as a slight underdog to Trump, whose own price spiked after he was shot in an attempted assassination on July 13.
密切跟蹤這場競爭的預測交易員注意到了這些變化。哈里斯在Polymarket和PredictIt這兩個預測市場上的價格已經超過了拜登辯論前的價格，儘管它們仍然認爲她位元朗普略遜一籌，川普的價格在7月13日暗殺未遂後飆升。
With less than 100 days until the election, Harris has injected notable enthusiasm into a previously demoralised Democratic party.
距離大選還有不到100天的時間，哈里斯爲先前士氣低落的民主黨注入了顯著的熱情。
Harris’s entry has also revived the enthusiasm of Democratic voters in a race where turnout will be paramount. Of those who voted for Biden in 2020, 73 per cent say they are “excited” to vote for Harris, versus only 37 per cent who said they were excited to vote for Biden again, according to an FT analysis of polls. Moreover, the share of 2020 Biden voters who planned not to vote dropped to 3 per cent from 10 per cent.
在這場投票率至關重要的競選中，哈里斯的參選也重振了民主黨選民的熱情。英國《金融時報》對民調的分析顯示，在2020年投票給拜登的人中，有73%表示對投票給哈里斯感到「興奮」，而只有37%表示對再次投票給拜登感到興奮。此外，2020年投票給拜登的選民中計劃此次不投票的比例從10%降至3%。
Along with the renewed enthusiasm has come a fundraising bounty. Harris’s campaign on Sunday announced it had raised $200mn in less than a week, two-thirds of it from first-time donors.
伴隨著重新燃起的熱情而來的是慷慨的籌款。哈里斯的競選團隊上週日宣佈，他們在不到一週的時間裏籌集了2億美元，其中三分之二來自首次捐款。
Additional research by Oliver Hawkins and Jonathan Vincent