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The writer is executive director of the Berghof Foundation and author of ‘The Burning Question: Climate and Conflict’
本文作者是伯格霍夫基金會執行董事，著有《亟待解決的問題：氣候與衝突》(The Burning Question： Climate and Conflict)。
Climate change exacerbates conflict, something that will only increase as temperatures continue to rise. But our responses to climate change, via the energy transition, can also generate conflict, and in ways we haven’t yet begun to address.
氣候變化加劇了衝突，而隨著氣溫的不斷升高，衝突只會越來越多。但是，我們透過能源轉型來應對氣候變化，也會引發衝突，而且是以我們尚未開始應對的方式。
Such violence as was seen during the gilets jaunes protests in France in 2018 was mild. But the drive to net zero, the green transition and climate change are now weaponised as a ‘wedge issue’ in culture wars by conservative and far-right parties opposed to greener policies. Radicalism on both sides may deepen and even turn violent.
2018年法國「黃馬甲」抗議期間發生的這種暴力是溫和的。但現在，反對綠色政策的保守派和極右翼政黨把追求淨零排放、綠色轉型和氣候變化武器化，作爲文化戰爭中的「楔子問題」。雙方的激進主義可能會加深，甚至演變成暴力。
Whatever happens in western Europe and North America will almost certainly be dwarfed by outcomes in countries like Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. Already deeply affected by climate change and conflict, their economies are dominated by fossil fuels (over 89 per cent of exports in all three) that are contributing to the environmental crisis, as well as to domestic corruption and violence.
無論西歐和北美髮生什麼，與伊拉克、利比亞和奈及利亞等國的結果相比，幾乎肯定相形見絀。這些國家已經深受氣候變化和衝突的影響，其經濟以化石燃料爲主（在這三個國家中，化石燃料佔出口的89%以上），而化石燃料正在加劇環境危機，並助長國內腐敗和暴力。
The countries hit hardest by the energy transition will be those whose budgets currently rely on oil revenues to provide basic services, jobs, subsidies and security for their populations. The fracturing of that social contract and the consequent deprivation will probably result in rebellion, intercommunal conflict and accelerated recruitment into extremist armed groups such as Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and Islamic State — as well as violent repression by governments in response.
受能源轉型衝擊最大的國家將是那些預算目前依賴石油收入爲其人民提供基本服務、就業、補貼和安全的國家。這種社會契約的破裂和隨之而來的剝奪，可能會導致叛亂、族羣間衝突，以及博科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)、基地組織(al-Qaeda)和伊斯蘭國(Islamic State)等極端武裝組織加速招募——政府也會採取暴力鎮壓作爲回應。
The transition from fossil fuels is expected to cause conflict in other ways. There is growing evidence that regions mining and exporting minerals that are essential for renewable technologies will face the same “resource curse” that many oil producers are used to.
從化石燃料過渡預計會在其他方面引發衝突。越來越多的證據表明，開採和出口可再生技術所必需的礦物質的地區將面臨許多石油生產國已經習慣的「資源詛咒」。
The Democratic Republic of Congo, which has experienced waves of violence for decades, has 70 per cent of the world’s reserves of cobalt and the seventh largest reserves of copper — both essential for batteries. Armed groups fight over control of the mines and use the revenues to prolong conflict, while the mining is often carried out under brutal conditions. As demand from the green transition raises their value over the long term, so will incentives increase to fight over control of these “conflict renewables”.
剛果民主共和國幾十年來經歷了一波又一波的暴力事件，該國擁有全球70%的鈷儲量和全球第七大銅儲量，這兩種資源都是製造電池所必需的。武裝組織爭奪礦山的控制權，並利用收入延長衝突，而採礦往往在殘酷的條件下進行。隨著綠色轉型的需求在長期內提高其價值，爭奪這些「衝突可再生能源」控制權的動機也會增加。
Many other countries fear they will also suffer higher levels of conflict as the energy transition gathers pace. What might be done to head off this under-appreciated threat?
許多其他國家擔心，隨著能源轉型步伐加快，它們也將遭受更嚴重的衝突。我們可以做些什麼來阻止這種未被充分認識的威脅呢？
First, there needs to be a more rigorous assessment of conflict risks when investing in renewable and rechargeable energy. “Sustainability” needs to apply not just to the production or storage of energy, but also to the rights of the affected communities. Companies and governments both have a role to play here in ensuring their supply chains do not foster abuses and conflict.
首先，在投資可再生能源和可再生能源時，需要對沖突風險進行更嚴格的評估。「可持續性」不僅需要適用於能源的生產或儲存，還需要適用於受影響社區的權益。在這方面，企業和政府都有責任確保它們的供應鏈不會助長濫用和衝突。
For countries reliant on oil, diversification of their economies and revenue base is essential. The Gulf’s richer states use their sovereign funds for this purpose, but less fortunate countries also need investment. Renewable energies can reduce the centralisation, monopoly and weaponisation associated with fossil fuels, as seen in Russia. Solar, wind and hydropower can be generated in almost every country in ways that are decentralised, small-scale and relatively cheap, which make them less useful for belligerents.
對於依賴石油的國家來說，經濟和收入基礎的多樣化至關重要。海灣地區較富裕的國家將其主權基金用於此目的，但不那麼幸運的國家也需要投資。可再生能源可以減少與化石燃料相關的集權、壟斷和武器化，就像在俄羅斯看到的那樣。幾乎每個國家都可以以分散、小規模和相對便宜的方式生產太陽能、風能和水力發電，這使得它們對好戰者來說用處不大。
In Somalia and Mali, UN peace missions have invested in off-grid solar power to reduce dependence on diesel generators, emissions and the ability of armed groups to manipulate control of fuel supplies. Such initiatives can also create economic and peacebuilding opportunities for local communities. As a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests, bridging renewable technologies and peacebuilding may unlock “an under-appreciated tool for limiting conflict and maintaining peaceful societies”.
在索馬利亞和馬利，聯合國維和特派團投資於離網太陽能發電，以減少對柴油發電機的依賴、減少排放和武裝團體操縱燃料供應控制的能力。這些倡議還可以爲當地社區創造經濟和建設和平的機會。正如戰略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的一份報告所指出的，將可再生技術與建設和平結合起來，可能會開啓「一種被低估的限制衝突和維護和平社會的工具」。
While the vast scale of the green transition presents varied challenges to different countries, all face increased risks of conflict. Developed economies need to show voters more convincingly the benefits of climate action, such as improved healthcare and infrastructure, to combat the narrative that net zero is “elitist” and “woke”. Oil-dependent states have to diversify their economies urgently with help from outside actors. And countries in neither of those categories but undergoing civil conflict need help in maximising the potential of renewables to contribute to peacebuilding.
雖然大規模的綠色轉型給不同國家帶來了不同的挑戰，但所有國家都面臨著日益增加的衝突風險。發達經濟體需要更令人信服地向選民展示氣候行動的好處，比如改善醫療和基礎設施，以對抗淨零是「精英主義」和「覺醒」的說法。依賴石油的國家必須在外部力量的幫助下，緊急實現經濟多元化。那些既不屬於上述兩類，但正在經歷國內衝突的國家需要幫助，以最大限度地發揮可再生能源對和平建設的貢獻。
It is imperative to avoid tackling climate change in ways that unwittingly increase risks of violent conflict. But that’s where we are headed unless every aspect of the transition is guided by more conflict-sensitive approaches.
當務之急是避免以無意中增加暴力衝突風險的方式應對氣候變化。但是，如果不以對沖突更加敏感的方式來指導轉型的方方面面，我們就會陷入這種境地。