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Amazon is no stranger to competition. From Walmart to Shopify, plenty of companies have tried to take on retail’s 800-pound gorilla. Few have emerged as a formidable challenger. Until now, with the explosive growth of Shein and Temu over the past two years.
亞馬遜對競爭並不陌生。從沃爾瑪(Walmart)到Shopify，許多公司都曾試圖挑戰這支零售業的800磅大猩猩。但很少有公司能成爲一個值得敬畏的挑戰者。但隨著Shein和Temu這兩年爆發式的成長，現在局面有了變化。
Shein sells inexpensive but trendy clothing. Temu, whose products include household goods, apparel and toys, is more like a digital dollar store. The two have been able to undercut US rivals by delivering cheap goods to Americans straight from factories and warehouses in China.
Shein銷售價格低廉但款式新潮的服裝。Temu的產品包括家居用品、服裝和玩具，更像是一家數位一元店。這兩家公司從中國的工廠和倉庫直接向美國人提供廉價商品，從而以低於美國競爭對手的價格銷售。
The pair’s rapid rise — each now commands a 1 per cent share of the US ecommerce market according to Bernstein Research — has forced Amazon to sit up and take notice. It defensively wants to emulate Shein’s and Temu’s low-cost business model with a direct-from-China discount marketplace of its own.
這兩家公司的迅速崛起——根據伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的數據，兩家公司目前都佔據了美國電子商務市場1%的份額——迫使亞馬遜坐不住了。出於戒備，亞馬遜希望效仿Shein和Temu的低成本商業模式，建立自己的中國直銷折扣市場。
This seems a terrible idea. Since launching in the US in September 2022, Temu — powered by big ad spending — has shot to the top of the app stores. While parent company PDD Holdings does not break out Temu’s financial performance, Temu’s global gross merchandise value — the total of all goods sold — reached $17bn last year and could grow to $40bn this year, says Bernstein.
這似乎是個糟糕的主意。Temu於2022年9月在美國推出，依靠鉅額廣告支出，它已躍居應用商店榜首。伯恩斯坦說，雖然母公司拼多多控股(PDD Holdings)沒有披露Temu的財務業績，但去年Temu的全球商品總值——所有售出商品的總和——達到了170億美元，今年可能會成長到400億美元。
But that growth has come at a cost. Shipping $10 dresses from China to the US for free adds up. One estimate puts Temu’s cost of shipping and handling per package at around $11. Between that and the billions spent on marketing, Bernstein thinks Temu made an operating loss of $4.6bn last year. This does not look sustainable. Amazon, with its 40 per cent market share of the $1.1tn-a-year US ecommerce market, should sit back and watch Temu burn its money on user acquisition and logistics.
但這種成長是有代價的。從中國向美國免費運送價值10美元的連衣裙的成本很高。據估計，Temu每個包裹的運輸和處理成本約爲11美元。加上數十億美元的行銷費用，伯恩斯坦認爲Temu去年的運營虧損達46億美元。這看起來難以爲繼。亞馬遜在美國每年1.1兆美元的電子商務市場中佔有40%的市場份額，它應該坐下來，靜靜看著Temu在用戶獲取和物流上燒錢。
Moreover, while Amazon’s massive warehouse and logistics network in the US throws up serious barriers to entry to new rivals, it has a more modest presence in China. It will struggle to match Temu and Shein in terms of logistical efficiency over there. Amazon will also have to compete against the pair in attracting a large low-cost merchant base from which to source goods.
此外，亞馬遜在美國擁有龐大的倉儲和物流網路，爲新對手的進入設置了嚴重的障礙，但它在中國的業務卻較爲有限。在當地，亞馬遜很難趕上Temu和Shein的物流效率。亞馬遜還必須與這兩家公司競爭，吸引大量低成本商戶以從中採購商品。
Then there are regulatory hurdles to consider. Regulators in Europe and the US are looking to crack down on the “de minimis” rule that has allowed Temu and Shein to send (in small scale) cheap goods overseas tariff free. This makes the timing of Amazon’s new direct from China venture odd. With Amazon facing antitrust lawsuits on both sides of the Atlantic, better to let Temu and Shein flame out in a bid for market share rather than join them in a race to the bottom.
此外，還要考慮監管方面的障礙。歐洲和美國的監管機構正尋求打擊「最低含量」規則，該規則允許Temu和Shein——小規模——免關稅向海外發送廉價商品。這使得亞馬遜新的中國直銷業務的時機有些奇怪。亞馬遜在大西洋兩岸都面臨著反壟斷訴訟，與其加入它們的逐底競爭，還不如讓Temu和Shein在爭奪市場份額的過程中自己熄火。