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Luxury investors are a spoilt bunch. Listen to the mood music ahead of first-quarter figures and you would be forgiven for thinking that the sector was facing some kind of Armageddon. True, the discerning investor needs to be mindful of divergent performances, as spending slows after the post-pandemic frenzy. But the surprising thing about this crop of luxury sales is just how resilient many brands are proving to be.
奢侈品投資者是一羣被寵壞的人。聽聽第一季度財報公佈前的氣氛，你可能會認爲這個行業正面臨著某種末日審判。誠然，有眼光的投資者需要注意業績的分化，因爲在疫情後的狂熱消費之後，支出有所放緩。但令人驚訝的是，這批奢侈品銷售中許多品牌表現出了驚人的韌性。
It is not hard to see why the market is minded to nitpick. A few names have posted ghastly results. Kering issued a double-whammy warning, flagging a 10 per cent decline in quarterly sales first, and then a 40 to 45 per cent fall in first-half operating income as its key Gucci brand stumbled in China. But Gucci is mired in a difficult turnaround, just as the market has become more selective. Those without homegrown problems have fared better.
不難理解爲何市場如此挑剔。有幾個品牌公佈了糟糕的業績。開雲集團發佈了雙重預警，首先是季度銷售額下降了10%，然後是上半年營業收入下降了40%至45%，這是因爲其關鍵品牌古馳(Gucci)在中國市場的表現不佳。然而，古馳正在經歷艱難的轉型，正值市場變得更加挑剔的時候。那些沒有本土問題的品牌表現得更好。
Take Hermès. The group has more customers for its £10,000 handbags than it actually produces. It can therefore increase revenues virtually at will, as exemplified by its 17 per cent increase in first-quarter organic sales. Perfumes and silks — products bought by the less-wealthy Hermès customer — only posted mid-single-digit growth. But the 20 per cent revenue growth in high-margin leather goods shows why the group leads the luxury sector on valuation, trading at more than 50 times this year’s earnings.
以愛馬仕(Hermès)爲例，其1萬英鎊手袋的需求量超過了實際產量。因此，它幾乎可以隨心所欲地提高收入，正如其第一季度有機銷售額成長17%所示。香水和絲綢——這些是較爲富裕的愛馬仕客戶購買的產品——只實現了中個位數的成長。然而，高利潤皮具的20%收入成長，展示了該集團在估值上爲何領先於奢侈品行業，今年的市盈率超過50倍。
Hermès’s strong performance underscores the fact that, in damped circumstances, super high-end customers feel the pinch less than so-called aspirational shoppers. That is borne out by the performance of Brunello Cucinelli, master of Italian understated luxury and of the $1,000 knit T-shirt, which posted an 18 per cent increase in quarterly sales.
愛馬仕的強勁業績凸顯了一個事實：在經濟不景氣的情況下，超高階客戶比所謂的有抱負的購物者更能抵抗壓力。這一點在義大利低調奢華大師布魯內諾•庫奇內利(Brunello Cucinelli)的業績中得到了證實，他的售價1000美元的針織T恤的季度銷售額成長了18%。
The resilience of the megarich is not the only reason for the luxury sector’s strength. Prada and Moncler, which both managed sales growth in the high teens, suggest that consumers are still flocking to trendy brands which are having a moment in the sun. And even behemoth LVMH managed to eke out a modicum of growth.
超級豪門的韌性並非奢侈品行業強勁的唯一原因。普拉達(Prada)和盟可睞(Moncler)兩家公司都實現了高達十幾個百分點的銷售成長，這表明消費者仍然熱衷於那些正處於風口浪尖的時尚品牌。甚至連奢侈品巨擘路威酩軒(LVMH)也成功實現了微弱的成長。
None of this is meant to suggest that luxury can stretch out its post-pandemic boom — a period when many companies posted well beyond 20 per cent annual sales growth. But, in aggregate, the sector seems on track to return to long-term average growth rates of perhaps 6 to 8 per cent this year. Given how large luxury has become, that is a remarkable result in and of itself.
這並不意味著奢侈品行業能夠延續其疫後的繁榮期——在這個時期，許多公司的年銷售成長率遠遠超過20%。但總的來說，該行業今年似乎有望恢復到長期平均成長率，可能爲6%至8%。鑑於奢侈品行業的龐大規模，這本身就是一個非凡的成就。