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As a rule, companies that urge investors to shrug off poor news, and focus instead on tomorrow’s prospects, are peddling poor advice. Yet ASML, Europe’s €350bn lone tech giant, is a rare exception.
一般來說，那些敦促投資者忽視不良訊息，而轉向關注未來前景的公司，通常都在推銷不良的建議。然而，歐洲市值3500億歐元的科技巨擘阿斯麥(ASML)卻是一個罕見的例外。
The Dutch chipmaking equipment provider has issued what could have been a concerning set of quarterly results. Sales of €5.3bn came in at the midpoint of company guidance. But China accounted for a massive 49 per cent of the machines it sold, as local chipmakers hoovered up older equipment not restricted by sanctions.
這家荷蘭晶片製造設備供應商發佈了可能引發關注的季度業績。銷售額達到53億歐元，正好位於公司預期的中值。然而，中國市場對其設備的需求佔了49%，這主要是因爲中國的晶片製造商大量購入了不受制裁限制的舊設備。
Those hoping that the much-rumoured chip upcycle would show through in new orders were also disappointed. At €3.6bn, these were less than half those in the last, blockbuster, quarter of 2023. This was also lower than the €5bn that analysts had been expecting, says Simon Coles at Barclays. ASML is continuing to invest in capacity, hiring people, building clean rooms and even pre-building equipment that it has not yet sold.
那些期待傳聞中的晶片升級週期在新訂單中顯現的人也感到失望。新訂單總額爲36億歐元，不到2023年最後一個熱銷季度的一半。巴克萊的西蒙•科爾斯(Simon Coles)表示，這也低於分析師預期的50億歐元。阿斯麥繼續投資擴大產能，招聘人員，建設潔淨室，甚至預製尚未銷售的設備。
This makes for uncomfortable reading, especially given the group’s strong share price run. Indeed, its stock fell about 6 per cent on Wednesday.
這讓人讀起來感到不安，尤其是考慮到該集團股價的強勁上漲。實際上，其股票在週三下跌了約6%。
This choppy quarter should not obscure ASML’s unassailable market position. Orders for its machines — each of which costs hundreds of millions of dollars — are notoriously lumpy.
這個波動劇烈的季度並不能掩蓋阿斯麥無可爭議的市場地位。其機器的訂單——每臺價值數億美元——是出了名的不穩定。
Demand is building. ASML’s clients, manufacturers such as TSMC and Samsung, are coming out of a slump, normalising inventories and increasing utilisation rates. Policy also provides a helpful push. Chipmakers are building new fabs, fuelled by funds from the US’s Chips Act. Samsung has been awarded $6.4bn and will build capacity in Texas. TSMC is setting up shop in Arizona. Both will need chipmaking equipment.
需求正在成長。阿斯麥的客戶，如臺積電(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)等製造商，正在走出低迷，調整庫存並提高利用率。政策也提供了有力的推動。在美國晶片法案(Chips Act)的資金推動下，晶片製造商正在建設新的晶圓廠。三星已獲得64億美元的資助，並將在德州增設產能。臺積電正在亞利桑那州設立新廠。這兩家公司都將需要晶片製造設備。
Longer term, as the world gets caught up in the artificial intelligence frenzy, it is hard to think of a sector with stronger secular tailwinds than computing power. And, most meaningfully, ASML has the luxury of being the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography units, which use tiny wavelengths to print patterns for more powerful chips. Its latest iterations make more chips per hour, lowering production costs for customers. ASML can then not only increase sales but also prices and margins.
從長期來看，隨著全球深陷人工智慧熱潮，很難想像有哪個行業比計算能力更具有強勁的長期趨勢。最重要的是，阿斯麥享有極紫外(EUV)光刻設備的唯一供應商的優勢，這種設備利用微小的波長來列印出更強大的晶片圖案。其最新版本每小時能生產更多的晶片，從而降低了客戶的生產成本。因此，阿斯麥不僅能提高銷售額，還能提高價格和利潤率。
All this underpins ASML’s continued conviction that it can make between €30bn and €40bn of sales in 2025, up from €27.5bn last year, with high gross margins of about 55 per cent. For that, it is well worth holding one’s nerve.
所有這些均爲阿斯麥持續堅信其到2025年銷售額能夠達到300億至400億歐元（較上年的275億歐元有所成長），且高毛利率約55%提供了堅實基礎。因此，堅守信念確實非常值得。