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China’s rapid buildout of electric vehicle battery capacity could itself run out of energy. Capacity will be twice this year’s demand, according to commodity research group CRU. That finding suggests demand for lithium will be more muted than anticipated by bulls. These include US chemicals group Albemarle.
中國電動汽車電池產能的快速成長本身就可能導致能源枯竭。大宗商品研究機構CRU稱，產能將是今年需求量的兩倍。這一結論表明，鋰需求將比看漲者預期的更爲低迷。其中包括美國化工集團雅寶(Albemarle)。
The world’s leading lithium producer is closing in on an all-cash deal for Australia’s Liontown Resources. This is worth A$3 per share or A$6.6bn ($4.3bn) in total. Despite weak spot lithium prices, down 61 per cent this year, Albemarle still had to pay up. Its previous offer in March was A$2.50.
這家全球領先的鋰生產商即將與澳洲的Liontown Resources達成一筆全現金交易。該交易每股價值3澳元，總計66億澳元(合43億美元)。儘管鋰現貨價格疲軟，今年以來已下跌61%，但雅寶仍不得不支付這筆錢。先前它在3月份的出價爲2.50澳元。
Liontown will now open its books. Albemarle wants Kathleen Valley, the fifth largest hard rock lithium resource in Australia with 5.4mn tonnes. Australia matters to the US producer. It already has large stakes in the first and third largest mines there.
Liontown現在將公開它的賬目。雅寶想要的是澳洲第五大硬巖鋰資源——凱瑟琳谷(Kathleen Valley)，儲量540萬噸。澳洲對這家美國生產商很重要。該公司已經在當地第一和第三大礦山持有大量股份。
The resource-dependent nation welcomes US lithium investment to balance Chinese interest. In July Australia’s Treasury blocked a takeover by a China-linked shareholder of Alita, a lithium miner in administration.
這個依賴資源的國家歡迎美國的鋰投資，以平衡中國的利益。今年7月，澳洲財政部阻止了一家與中國有關聯的股東收購處於破產管理中的鋰礦商Alita。
Albemarle’s shares have done little for two years. Trailing one-year ebitda for its lithium division, which makes 88 per cent of group profits, has decelerated. Profit margins have slipped in recent quarters.
兩年來，雅寶的股價幾乎沒有上漲。該公司鋰業務佔集團利潤的88%，其過去一年滾動ebitda已出現放緩。利潤率在最近幾個季度有所下滑。
This deal would be the largest lithium mining deal announced to date, according to Dealogic data. But it would not add to cash flow before 2025. That puts the offer price at 16 times consensus ebitda for that year. Larger local rival Pilbara Resources, which is already profitable, trades at a third of that valuation.
Dealogic的數據顯示，這筆交易將是迄今爲止宣佈的最大一筆鋰礦交易。但它在2025年之前不會增加現金流。這使得收購價格達到當年ebitda預期的16倍。規模更大的本土競爭對手Pilbara Resources已實現盈利，其交易價值僅爲上述估值的三分之一。
Liontown’s shareholders should be pleased. Its own valuation back in late 2021 — when spot lithium prices were similar — put a A$4.2bn value on Kathleen Valley. Albemarle’s downstream lithium conversion plants are some 1,000km away by rail near Perth. A long Australian rail link is preferable to long-distance road links in developing countries such as Mali, as Liberum points out.
Liontown的股東應該感到高興。早在2021年底，當現貨鋰價格相近時，其對凱瑟琳谷的估值爲42億澳元。雅寶的下游鋰轉化廠距離珀斯約1000公里鐵路。Liberum指出，與馬利等發展中國家的長途公路相比，澳洲的長途鐵路更爲可取。
Albemarle has plenty of form in Australia. But given battery overcapacity in China, the chances of its stock price benefiting from this added production are slim.
雅寶在澳洲有很好的表現。但考慮到中國的電池產能過剩，其股價從新增產量中受益的可能性很小。