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Some of the world’s cheapest equities are in Vietnam. The south-east Asian country’s benchmark index is trading at a its lowest valuation in a decade. That gives investors a reason to get serious about this long-overlooked market.
世界上一些最便宜的股票在越南。這個東南亞國家的基準指數正以十年來的最低估值交易。這讓投資者有理由認真對待這個長期被忽視的市場。
A soaring dollar has left the Vietnam Stock Index down nearly 30 per cent this year, trading at less than 10 times forward earnings. It is one of the worst performing among regional peers. Its blue-chips include real estate and tech conglomerate Vingroup, which has fallen 37 per cent this year.
美元走高導致越南股指(Vietnam Stock Index)今年以來下跌近30%，預期市盈率不到10倍。它是地區同行中表現最差的銀行之一。其藍籌股包括房地產和科技集團Vingroup，該公司今年已下跌37%。
There is plenty of potential. The economy is expected to grow at the fastest pace in Asia this year. The population is growing and young. More than 70 per cent of Vietnamese people are under the age of 35. GDP per capita is just $3,694, less than one-third of China’s figure. This leaves ample room for growth.
有很大的潛力。預計今年的經濟成長速度將是亞洲最快的。人口正在成長和年輕化。超過70%的越南人年齡在35歲以下。人均GDP只有3694美元，不到中國的三分之一。這爲成長留下了充足的空間。
Vietnam has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the US-China trade war. US groups have moved suppliers to Vietnam to dodge US tariffs and blacklists for operating in China.
越南一直是中美貿易戰的最大受益者之一。美國集團已將供應商轉移到越南，以規避美國的關稅和在華經營黑名單。
Apple already sources a proportion of its popular AirPods earphones from Vietnam. It is also testing watch and laptop production there. Exports to the US grew more than a quarter in the year to September, reflecting the shift. Pandemic lockdowns in China have reduced its manufacturing dominance.
蘋果已經從越南採購了一部分頗受歡迎的AirPods耳機。該公司還在中國測試手錶和筆記型電腦的生產。在截至9月份的一年裏，中國對美出口成長逾四分之一，反映出這一轉變。中國的疫情封鎖削弱了其製造業的主導地位。
Vietnamese growth has been impressive. The economy expanded 13.7 per cent in the third quarter, after growth of 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter. As travel normalises globally, tourism, which accounts for about a tenth of the economy, should give those numbers a further boost. Vietnam’s quasi-socialist market economy has helped it rapidly slash its poverty rate from 17 per cent to below 5 per cent in the span of just 10 years.
越南的經濟成長令人印象深刻。中國經濟第三季度成長13.7%，而上一季度成長7.8%。隨著全球旅遊的正常化，佔經濟十分之一的旅遊業應該會進一步提振這些數字。越南的準社會主義市場經濟幫助該國在短短10年內迅速將貧困率從17%降至5%以下。
But it has downsides. Moving capital out of Vietnam is complicated. Exchange controls limit foreign currency outflows.
但它也有缺點。把資本轉移出越南是很複雜的。外匯管制限制了外匯外流。
This has partly been why Vietnam has been the country of the future for much longer than investors have hoped. But at today’s valuations, the risks are attenuating.
這就是爲什麼越南成爲未來之國的時間比投資者預期的要長得多。但以目前的估值來看，風險正在減弱。