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King Dollar is back on its throne. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six other important currencies, is near its 20-year high. The rise of the haven currency amid higher rates, a European war and global shortages is casting a long shadow.
「貨幣之王」美元又回到了寶座上。追蹤美元對其它6種重要貨幣匯率的美元指數(US Dollar Index)接近20年來的高點。在利率上升、歐洲戰爭和全球物資短缺的背景下，這種避險貨幣的升值正在投下長長的陰影。
For companies with revenues overseas, the headache is the hit to earnings. The impact on the $23tn US Treasury market is a real, though less obvious, snag. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has gained more than 18 per cent since late September. The yen’s fall against the buck risks cutting Japanese demand for US government debt.
對於擁有海外營收的公司來說，令人頭疼的是收益受到的打擊。對規模達23兆美元的美國國債市場的影響是一個真正的麻煩，儘管不那麼明顯。自去年9月底以來，美元對日元匯率已上漲逾18%。日元對美元下跌可能會降低日本對美國政府債券的需求。
As the dollar rises, foreign investors have to pay more for currency hedges, which cuts into their returns. Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly hit 2.97 per cent this month, the yield in effect falls to just 1.32 per cent once you factor in yen-dollar hedging costs. These now stand at 1.65 percentage points, a two-year high.
隨著美元升值，外國投資者不得不爲貨幣對沖支付更多的錢，這削減了他們的回報。儘管10年期美國國債收益率本月一度觸及2.97%，但一旦計入日元對美元的對沖成本，實際收益率僅爲1.32%。目前這一成本爲1.65個百分點，爲兩年來的最高水準。
Japanese institutions sold a hefty $74bn of Treasuries in March, according to data released last week. While the Asian country remains the largest foreign holder of US government bonds, its $1.23tn holding is at its lowest level since January 2020.
上週公佈的數據顯示，日本金融機構3月份售出了740億美元的鉅額美國國債。儘管這個亞洲國家仍是美國政府債券的最大外國持有者，但其1.23兆美元的持倉處於2020年1月以來的最低水準。
The sell-off may have been exacerbated by Japanese money managers booking profits for the fiscal year, which ends in March. Even so, the fall is 2.5 times greater than the largest previous sale by Japanese investors in a single month, according to TD Securities.
日本基金經理正在兌現截至3月份的本財年利潤，可能加劇了這一拋售。儘管如此，據道明證券(TD Securities)的數據，這一跌幅仍是日本投資者先前單月最大規模拋售的2.5倍。
China, the second-largest overseas holder of Treasuries, also reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month in March. Since November, it has sold more than $41bn of US government debt.
中國是美國國債的第二大海外持有者，今年3月，中國也連續第四個月減持美國國債。自去年11月以來，該國已售出逾410億美元的美國政府債券。
Sustained selling would be a problem for the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is counting on foreign investors to help absorb the increased supply of Treasuries that is coming on to the market as it ends its pandemic-era bond-buying programme. Fed boss Jay Powell will just have to hope that steeper yields and the dollar’s haven appeal will outweigh higher hedging costs.
持續的拋售對美聯準(Fed)來說將是一個問題。美國央行正指望外國投資者幫助吸收增加的美國國債供應量——隨著美聯準結束疫情時期的債券購買計劃，更多國債正在流入市場。美聯準主席傑伊•鮑爾(Jay Powell)只能寄希望於，收益率飆升和美元的避險吸引力將勝過增高的對沖成本。