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The easiest way to fly green? Take the train instead. Soon travellers in France will not have a choice. Domestic flights of two and a half hours or fewer will be outlawed under new emissions rules. But investors need not fear for Parisian airports owner ADP which has instead staked its future on international travel.
最簡單的綠色飛行方式？用坐火車代替。很快，法國的旅行者將沒有選擇。根據新的排放規則，兩個半小時或更短的國內航班將被取締。但投資者不必擔心巴黎機場的所有者巴黎機場集團(ADP)，該公司已將其未來押在國際旅行上。
Its shares blipped on to traders’ radars on Tuesday when Schiphol Group, the Amsterdam airport owner, sold its 3.9% ADP stake one-tenth below market prices. Its shares plummeted more than 12 per cent.
週二，當阿姆斯特丹機場所有者皇家史基浦集團(Schiphol Group)以低於市場價格十分之一的價格出售其3.9%的巴黎機場集團股份時，其股票進入了交易商的視野。其股價暴跌逾12%。
ADP owns and operates the important Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports in Paris. Traffic in the first nine months of this year remained about 15 per cent below 2019 levels. Lockdowns in China explain why lucrative Asia-Pacific routes remain far more subdued.
巴黎機場集團擁有並經營巴黎重要的戴高樂(Charles de Gaulle)機場和奧利(Orly)機場。今年前9個月的交通量仍比2019年的水準低約15%。中國的封鎖解釋了爲什麼利潤豐厚的亞太航線仍然十分低迷。
As for the French domestic flight ban, that will be limited, says Henk Ombelet of consultancy Cirium. Only three routes will be affected in total, all from ADP’s Orly airport, which accounted for just 3 per cent of traffic in 2019.
諮詢公司Cirium的亨克•奧伯萊(Henk Ombelet)說，至於法國國內航班禁令，將是有限的。總共只有3條航線會受到影響，都是來自巴黎機場集團的奧利機場，該機場在2019年只佔到3%的交通量。
ADP shares had been cruising. Over the past two years it had outpaced the MSCI all world transport infrastructure sector index. Before Tuesday’s drop its enterprise value to ebitda ratio traded at a 30 per cent premium to listed regional rivals. Its multiple has descended to a more palatable 12 times.
巴黎機場集團的股價一直在上升。在過去兩年裏，它超過了明晟(MSCI)全球運輸基礎設施行業指數。在週二的下跌之前，其企業價值倍數比上市的區域競爭對手高出30%。其倍數已經降至較爲可接受的12倍。
The Paris group’s lower reliance on European travellers explains the remaining premium. At Spanish rival Aena 90 per cent of passengers originate from the continent. That means more exposure to the local economic cycle and to stricter EU environmental rules for flights.
巴黎機場集團對歐洲旅客的依賴性較低，這也是剩餘溢價的原因。在西班牙的競爭對手西班牙機場管理局(Aena)，90%的乘客來自歐洲大陸。這意味著其更容易受到當地經濟週期和歐盟更嚴格的航班環境規則的影響。
Meanwhile, ADP’s stakes in Turkish and Indian airport operators diversify its revenues further with some potential for growth; a third of profits will come from outside of Europe by 2025, thinks Jefferies, up from a quarter. ADP shrewdly managed to buy these stakes during a period of low interest rates.
同時，巴黎機場集團在土耳其和印度機場營運商的股份使其收入進一步多樣化，並具有一定的成長潛力；傑富瑞(Jefferies)認爲，到2025年，三分之一的利潤將來自歐洲以外的地區，而之前只有四分之一。巴黎機場集團精明地在低利率時期購買了這些股份。
On analyst estimates, ADP offers a free cash flow yield of 3 per cent annually on average out to 2025. That still beats that from French government debt. This air pocket drop offers an opportunity for those anticipating a recovery in global air travel next year.
根據分析師的估計，巴黎機場集團在2025年之前平均每年產出3%的自由現金流收益。這仍然比法國政府債務的收益率高。此次下降爲那些預測明年全球航空旅行復蘇的人提供了一個機會。